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Thoughts on Nick Chubb after the draftPlayer Discussion (self.DynastyFF)

submitted by Runitup215

Nick Chubb seems to be one of the only RBs set to see the lion share of the workload after the draft. How much has Chubbs value risen as a dynasty asset?

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[–]ghostboo77 67 points68 points  (23 children)

I mean I think he remains an elite RB. His relative value is probably never going to go up tho since he is now 27.

[–]Runitup215[S] 14 points15 points  (22 children)

He's kind of a young 27 tho. Compared to the other RBs in his age group CMC, Ekeler, Cook, Mixon, Barkley, Zeke he's played atleast one less pro season and has been the healthiest of the bunch. Still under contract for another 2 seasons with no one currently threatening his touches. Seems like a must buy for anyone contending given his price of RB15 ON KTC.

[–]MadGeller 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Career games/touches-

  • Elliot 103-2186,
  • Henry 102-1877,
  • Kamera 88-1565,
  • Mixon 80 1545,
  • Cook 73-1503,
  • CMC 75-1467,
  • Chubb 75-1329,
  • Barkley 61-1201,
  • Ekeler 89-1200.

[–]tooodifferent Millennium Falcons 9 points10 points  (1 child)

I think CMC and Ekeler shouldn’t really be grouped in with the others. CMC has had reduced playing time with injuries (injury concerns always an issue tho and could cut his career short). Saquon same boat + younger. Ekeler didn’t get rolling til later in his career due to being a UDFA and playing behind Gordon. I think they are several hundred touches behind Cook, Mixon, and Zeke.

[–]Runitup215[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

CMC is always scary bc he always runs the Rick of getting injured. If he misses 10 games next season I don't think anyone would be totally surprised. Ekeler only has 129 less touches than Chubb over his career

[–]ChrisLBC562 Chris Carson's Day 1 1 point2 points  (7 children)

What’s the price you’d buy for?

[–]Flimsy_Squirrel6011 1 point2 points  (6 children)

I just bought. The day after the draft. I sent 1.05 1.10 and 2.02. It's a ten man league. So that's 3 top 12 picks. 1 qb.

And I could not be happier.

I already have ford fwiw

[–]MinshewManiaBOAT Just A Guy 25 points26 points  (1 child)

I always say get your guy.

But you must have been your league mates guy.

Because he got you good.

[–]Flimsy_Squirrel6011 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If I did it over again. I'd give up a late second over the early second. But no rb I'm going to take with those picks will be at chubb level in their career imo

[–]ChrisLBC562 Chris Carson's Day 1 5 points6 points  (2 children)

Got dang, that’s a lot. You are a heavy favorite, yeah?

[–]Flimsy_Squirrel6011 1 point2 points  (1 child)

I have

mahomes.

Bijan chubb penny fournette Ford

Kupp. Keenan. Higgins. Deebo. Dotson.

Ertz. Ferguson. Conklin. Fant

[–]Ok-Seaworthiness231312T/SF/PPR 9 points10 points  (0 children)

So not a heavy favourite then

[–]KingofMoonMen 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I love Chubb and think he’s viable for another two years but this is a ridiculous price to pay in Dynasty.

[–]yourmeshugana 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Chubbs contract is set where he's locked in this year and Cleveland can save 4m by cutting him next year or pay him 16m to play. If they don't need him (i.e. they stink, or a other rb falls in their lap) he's as good as gone next year

[–]SASshampoo / Bottle 1 point2 points  (9 children)

Chubb had the same injury in college that caused the sudden collapse of Todd Gurley.

[–]rossyhotsaucy 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Todd Gurley had/has a degenerative condition in his knee similar to Kawhi Leonard. The fact Chubb and Gurley both tore ligaments in their knee is irrelevant.

[–]Runitup215[S] 7 points8 points  (7 children)

Chubb only missed 7 games over his career

[–]SASshampoo / Bottle 1 point2 points  (6 children)

I’m not disagreeing with that. Just pointing out that a top RB was suddenly irrelevant due to an injury that they had all the way back in college. The same one that Chubb got in college

[–]Runitup215[S] 2 points3 points  (5 children)

Feel like it's a little late in the ball game to worry about that happening with Chubb. He's been one of the most durable backs in the league over his career.

[–]SASshampoo / Bottle -1 points0 points  (4 children)

Same could have been said for Gurley

[–]Runitup215[S] 6 points7 points  (2 children)

But just bc it happens to one guy doesn't mean it's going to happen to another. It's also been 8 since Chubbs injury. Gurley declined 5 years after his.

[–]SASshampoo / Bottle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed, but it is an added risk that one should factor it. It’s likely something that isn’t a problem until it is. One moment Gurley is best RB in the league in his prime, the next he is dust.

[–]ChrisLBC562 Chris Carson's Day 1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So what are you suggesting we pay for Chubb??

[–]yourmeshugana 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Not really....you heard of gurleys health demise when he was barely 24... chubb about to be 28 and been durable ..haha not even comparable

[–]ct1m 20 points21 points  (4 children)

This is a buy Jerome Ford post

[–]nature_boie 5 points6 points  (2 children)

Can’t wait to sell Ford for a 24 2nd

[–]ct1m 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'd gladly take the pick. I'm just saying, he has a much better opportunity now

[–]MrStealYo14 Bengals WT 2 points3 points  (0 children)

is that enough

[–]Runitup215[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Based on what? Hopes and dreams?

[–]crillc 26 points27 points  (7 children)

No one mentioning Jerome Ford. That’s the guy to target. Handcuff Chubb for cheap (browns didn’t take any threats to that backfield).

[–]JPMoney81 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is the answer. Ford is the new Hunt/backup to Chubb. The Browns front office really seem to like him as well.

[–]Runitup215[S] -3 points-2 points  (5 children)

Jerome Ford was a 5th round pick that had like 8 touches last season. He's less than a JAG. Just hopes and dreams at this point. Chubb will get 300 touches the next 2 seasons. Cleveland will run Chubb into the ground.

[–]Longjumping_Play323 Packers 2 points3 points  (4 children)

Brett Kollmann has entered the chat

[–]Barian_Fostate 2 points3 points  (3 children)

Was on a call with my buddy in the Browns FO recently and brought Ford up because I love him. There’s a reason they made zero effort to replace him in this draft.

[–]Longjumping_Play323 Packers 1 point2 points  (2 children)

I will choose to believe you anonymous Reddit insider!

[–]Barian_Fostate 5 points6 points  (1 child)

I am Brett Kollmann

[–]Longjumping_Play323 Packers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Brett Kollmann HAS entered the chat.

[–]Thehawkiscock 10 points11 points  (1 child)

Nick Chubb before the draft: Elite RB, has averaged 100 yards per game for four straight seasons.

After the draft: same

Should have 1-2 more really good years

[–]Runitup215[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Really more thinking of everyone else situation and how Chubb is one of the few RBs poised for a huge workload. Is there 5 other RBs you can see getting 300 touches next season? 2 seasons to absolutely run him into the ground.

[–]Overwatch1818 25 points26 points  (2 children)

Chubb is about to explode, possible rb1 overall if watson gets back to form. Sort of a vintage Henry season from a few yrs ago

[–]owleabf 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Fwiw there's some smoke that browns might be less run centric and more pass centric this year

[–]Schaufy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think this is the answer. There is a reason they are adding so many WR with capital. But with Hunt presumedly gone and Ford as the only backup, Chubb probably sees the field more with getting probably the same amount of touches (maybe a slight bit less)

[–]TC84 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Chubb is in line for his career year. Still in age apex, low milage, and Hunt finally gone. This is the year to ride him to a championship

[–]fiskesox96 Patriots 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Chubb owner here. I think the Browns offense gets better overall, Chubb gets less usage but is somewhat more efficient (they keep saying theyre gonna throw more) but I trust stud RBs generally to have longer careers than avg. joes. He was RB5 last year even with the late season fall off. I see him like Emmett Smith, LT, Peterson so I'm keeping him until the wheels fall off. Moreso I also think the RB landscape isn't great so I like his long term outlook/stability.

[–]ItsYaBoi_5kinnyPenis Lions 5 points6 points  (18 children)

Lowkey I’m buying dalvin Cook

[–]LisleSwanson No 1st until 2026 1 point2 points  (5 children)

If I were contending I'd be trying to buy Chubb, CMC, Henry and Ekeler despite their age or any injury concerns. I'd feel confident rolling with any of them into the season.

Zeke, Cook, Mixon and Kamara carry more risk in my eyes. I'd be more inclined to try and sell.

I don't know where to evaluate Saquan. He would probably just be a hold for me.

[–]Runitup215[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Feel like Chubb is by far the best buy considering his pricetag is considerably lower than CMC, Saquan, Henry and, Ekeler. Only one besides CMC and Saquan out the bunch with a definite role. Should get around 300 touches next two years.

[–]larryshomework00 0 points1 point  (3 children)

Chubb and Henry owner has no 1st or 2nd this year and I'm competing and have the 1.11 and 2.02. Can 1.11 get me Chubb, or add more? Also have 3.11

[–]LisleSwanson No 1st until 2026 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Is that owner competing? Start with the first, but if you're a contender I'd feel comfortable sending both the 1.11 and 2.01 to win it

[–]larryshomework00 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Yes, their team is stacked, and I hate trading with them because of it. Also, looking at Najee, Pollard, and Miles as possible offers for 1.11. Those teams aren't completing.

[–]LisleSwanson No 1st until 2026 1 point2 points  (0 children)

https://dynastyranker.com/Sleeper/DisplayLeague

I like using this website to help me evaluate potential trade partners. It breaks down your entire league and not only ranks the best lineups, but shows you who has the #1 WRs, so on and so forth.

From there, if I'm looking for RBs, I target the bottom tier RB teams and send them their team needs, etc

[–]BilboSR24 Ravens 2 points3 points  (2 children)

The true sell high window was 1-2 seasons ago. But he still holds a lot of value. One of the top backs in the league. Ironically, losing Hunt may hurt his output slightly

[–]Runitup215[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I mean I don't see anyone on the current roster that's going to challenge him for touches. Ford is a pipe dream. I see Chubb atleast duplicating what he's done last season on a better offense. Should flirt with 300ish touches again. Really one of the only true workhorses in the league at the moment

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thats not true. The season before last, he had so many tds vultured by kareem hunt and that whole situation seemed very murkey. His value dropped. Then last season, the Browns dedicated more touches to Chubb and made it clear Hunt was out of the picture. If u sold Chubb before last season you did not sell at his peak

[–]rollin20s Giants 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Traded chubb, 1.07, 2.10 and Jimmy G for bijan and Brian Asamoah (idp league) last night 🤷‍♂️

[–]kyo03andrew 0 points1 point  (2 children)

I have Chubb and i’m not very confident in my team to go win the chip. I hold the 1.07 and a bunch of 2nd in a 10 team SF with TE premium. A leaguemate who have the 1.04 is offering me Cam Akers and the 2.05 for Chubb and i’m wondering what to do. I kinda want to rebuild/retool…

[–]MinshewManiaBOAT Just A Guy 5 points6 points  (0 children)

If you want to retool that’s fine. But if so you need to get a better piece than Cam Akers. If that’s the best this guy will offer find a new trade partner.

[–]TuonSucksMatLeave Jags 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Akers and the rams are too much of a wildcard. I would decline that trade.

The 1.04 straight up seems a lot closer to fair although people factoring in Chubb's age will freak out.

I'd be fine with trading this year's 1.04 for two more years of 1200+ yards and 8TDs if that was the missing piece to my team.

[–]Many-Cause-8120 0 points1 point  (0 children)

His value hasn't changed he's very good but aging...

[–]jake-the-dogg26 Giants 0 points1 point  (3 children)

I’m worried abt Chubb, Watson is a pass first offense. From week 13 to 18 when Watson returned Chubb was (rb35;29;36;23;20;1) week 18 was his best performance with an outlier 6 targets and 5 catches for 45yds and a TD.

Small sample size for sure but also concerning as he’s getting older, he’s never been a high reception player, and Watson may begin rushing again eating into his carries. Dude is still a stud but like I said, concerning.

[–]Runitup215[S] 2 points3 points  (2 children)

Week 13 to 18 Chubb had 17, 14, 21, 24, 14, and 12 rushing attempts. If he kept that up for a season hed be at 289 carries. He just didn't see the end zone which is what killed his fantasy output. He also had 14 targets which is the most he seen over a 6 game stretch last season. Watson passing the ball could also give Chubb a little bit of PPR upside. He's going to have a huge workload with nobody currently challenging him for touches.

[–]jake-the-dogg26 Giants 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Exactly dude is still a stud. But all those extrapolated statistics are pretty much show he’s on par for himself throughout his career, so in the short term (say the next year or 2) we should expect him to perform at about the same elite caliber.

If he performs the same his value, I feel would stay about the same as it has been. I don’t think his value really rises but you’ve definitely proven to me that he can be bought at a value right now bc of the perception. Biggest concern would be TD regression given that he still hit 12 end zones this last year.

[–]Runitup215[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Chubb had 12 of 38 offensive TDs last season. I expect the offense to be better than it was a year ago. Can't see him not having similar output to what he had last year. He seems like a locked in RB1 to me. Don't see any rookie RB scoring more than him outside of Bijan. Also guys like Walker, Williams, Henry, Ekeler, ETN take hits with their signing and current situations. I think Chubbs short term value goes up bc of the decrease in the other RBs value declining. I'd rather have Chubb for next season or 2 than anyone I just named beside Ekeler if resigned. Another RB I think has a huge boost in value in Najee. But hes priced a lot higher than Chubb

[–]KillaIcon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ford szn