ZandrickEllison
u/ZandrickEllison
I wouldn’t say “generational” talent but I think he’ll be considered a good # 1 pick, maybe in the Blake Griffin range.
I only have vague memories of that series, but I wouldn’t read too much into Payton locking up MJ. The Bulls were up 3-0 so it’s natural to take your foot off the gas a little.
I do think it’ll be an adjustment for Jimmy Butler mostly. He’s good offensively because he can attack and playmake, but if he doesn’t have the ball in his hands all the time he may not be as efficient.
Bill Simmons is a sportswriter, television personality, and podcaster. After many successful years at ESPN as a writer, tv host, and creator (of Grantland & 30 for 30), he signed a lucrative deal to partner with HBO. He currently hosts "The Bill Simmons Podcast", and founded TheRinger.com and Ringer Podcast Network in 2016
Bill Simmons is a sportswriter, television personality, and podcaster. After many successful years at ESPN as a writer, tv host, and creator (of Grantland & 30 for 30), he signed a lucrative deal to partner with HBO. He currently hosts "The Bill Simmons Podcast", and founded TheRinger.com and Ringer Podcast Network in 2016
Totally agree. The younger generation of men seem like sexless simps because they think it’s what girls want. And when they give up on that they seem to get angry and watch a lot of Andrew Tate.
Steph Curry has a good basketball IQ and all but he did get a free pass for two of the dumbest mistakes of the postseason (calling a timeout when they didn’t have one, tossing the ball away randomly at the end of a game)
I’m not a gambling expert but I’ve always heard it’s smart to bet on things Vegas doesn’t know much about (like this or the WNBA or something) because once it’s a big deal they figure out the odds pat . Right now it’s a bit of the Wild West so maybe you can sniff out value.
When the NBA finally announced the In-Season Tournament, the reaction from fans ranged all the way from "meh, no thanks" to "eh, why not".
You'd have to be a hardcore NBA fan to care about the In-Season Tournament -- and you'd have to be an absolute degenerate to bet on the In-Season Tournament. Well, degenerates, this one's for you.
general betting principles
The In-Season Tournament is formatted more like the Olympics or World Cup, where there will be a group stage of play before teams advance into a tournament set up. The top 8 teams from group play will advance.
There's a misconception that NBA teams won't care about the tournament -- and may not even try at all. They may even send their "B Squad" to compete.
The NBA knew this was a potential problem and game-planned accordingly. These tournament games will count toward the regular season standings. So in effect, there's not much difference for the teams. If you want to make the playoffs down the road, you'll compete hard. If you're going to tank this year, you may not. The league office is also going to pressure teams to take it seriously and avoid egregious "load management" for these games if they can.
That said, there are a few subtle differences that may be worth noting. The "championship" game of the tournament will be an extra game that will not count in the standings. So while the league is giving a financial bonus to winning players, their actual NBA teams may not want the hassle of an extra game. It may be in their best interest to lose in the quarterfinals or semifinals.
There's also an element in the group stage where "point differential" is the tie-breaker for wild card entries. Again, the better teams may not want that hassle. If you're the Golden State Warriors and you want to make the playoffs healthy, are you really going to push hard to win a game by 20? Probably not.
All in all, the format of the In-Season Tournament favors the pretty good, fairly young teams. They have to be a strong enough team to win several games in a row, but they also have to youthful and durable enough to press hard for a marginal trophy.
In terms of our process, we'll go "group" by "group", studying the pool and assessing the best bet in each one. After that, we'll make our ultimate recommendation for the best overall bet.
best bet in West Group A
Note: we're not making picks here -- we're recommending the best BETTING odds in each group.
Given that, we're going to consider the payouts for each team. We'll list each team along with their Bovada odds to win the entire tournament. Note: the numbers mean your pay-out on a $100 bet. So +2000 (20:1 odds) means a $100 bet would win $2,000.
West Group A consists of: Phoenix (+1100), L.A. Lakers (+1600), Memphis (+2500), Utah (+4500), Portland (+10000).
We said to avoid teams that may be too old, but this group sets up well for veteran teams like Phoenix and the Lakers. Memphis may still be rounding into form with the Ja Morant drama, and I'm not sure Utah or Portland is up for a heavyweight battle yet. I'm sure the NBA would love for LeBron James and the Lakers to advance and be the face of this In-Season Tournament, but I'll still say Phoenix looks like the best bet among this group so far. Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are young-ish big-shot makers who may like this (moderately lit) spotlight. The payout isn't terribly exciting, but it's still our favorite bet among this particular group.
best bet in West Group B
West Group B consists of: Denver (+900), Dallas (+2500), L.A. Clippers (+3000), New Orleans (+3000), Houston (+5500).
The Denver Nuggets are clearly the best team here, but are they going to be motivated to push hard and win an In-Season tournament? I don't think so; they have some baked in durability issues with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. and may not want to step on the gas this early. Same with the Clippers. We'll also say the same about the New Orleans Pelicans -- and Zion Williamson primarily. Amazingly, he's averaged about 30 games per season in the NBA; that's a concern to put it mildly. All in all, let's pick Dallas as the best bet in this field.
best bet in West Group C
West Group C consists of: Sacramento (+1400), Golden State (+1400), Oklahoma City (+2000), Minnesota (+2200), San Antonio (+6500).
You figure the Sacramento Kings have the chemistry and coaching to keep chugging through a mid-season tournament -- and OKC has a talented young core themselves. In fact, according to my crude math (and study of the lines' movement), the Thunder are the most "bet on" team in the entire field so far. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tore up FIBA and may be even better this year if Chet Holmgren can play and provide some additional spacing.
Still, I like Minnesota here. They underwhelmed last season with Rudy Gobert, but Karl-Anthony Towns did miss 50 games. There's a chance they're better than the expectations, especially if Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels can take a step up.
best bet in East Group A
East Group A consists of: Cleveland (+1500), Philadelphia (+1800), Atlanta (+2000), Indiana (+3500), Detroit (+8000)
If I trusted the young teams like Indiana and Detroit, I'd be tempted by those odds. And I do think both have an outside chance of advancing. But can they win 3 more games from there? That's asking a lot.
In terms of the higher end teams, Cleveland does have youth on their side. Philadelphia may have extra motivation too. If they end up trading James Harden, that could be the motivational jolt the team needs to win this tournament.
So where do we go here? High end? Long shots? Let's split the difference and compromise on Atlanta, a team that probably needs to rack up wins to ensure the playoffs.
best bet in East Group B
East Group B consists of: Milwaukee (+1200), Miami (+1200), New York (+2200), Charlotte (+6000), Washington (+10000)
Quin Snyder will probably have the Hawks pushing hard in Atlanta, and Tom Thibodeau will always have the Knicks pushing hard in New York. For that reason, I like New York as a bet in this bracket. That said, if Miami gets Damian Lillard, they'd be hard to bet against. This type of tournament setting would be ideal for Lillard to pump back up his PR, hit a game winner or two, and make a "Clutch Player of the Year" push.
best bet in East Group C
East Group C consists of: Boston (+700), Orlando (+3000), Chicago (+4000), Brooklyn (+4000), Toronto (+4500)
I can see a scenario where Chicago or Toronto try hard and win the bracket, but Boston has such a talent advantage among this group that we'll have to defer to them. They could push at 80% strength and still win this group. If you wanted to bet on a team to win the "group" only (which you can), I'd go with a higher upside team like Chicago or Toronto, but for an overall tournament winner, we want to stick with teams that can rattle off longer winning streaks.
OVERALL BEST IN SHOW BET
According to our original premise, we wanted to target "pretty good, pretty young" teams with solid payouts. Most of those we highlighted fit that bill: Atlanta (+2000), Minnesota (+2200), N.Y Knicks (+2200) and Dallas (+2500).
Meanwhile, two favorites slipped into our consideration: Boston (+700) and Phoenix (+1100). I wouldn't bet on favorite in a format like this, although having the Celtics and Suns in there reminds us that these "pretty good, pretty young" teams will need to be able to knock out a top team or two along the way.
Who has that kind of upside? Of the group, I'm most drawn to Minnesota and Dallas as two teams that would be able to knock anyone out on any given night. Of the two, Minnesota has the most cohesion from last year's roster, so I'm going to pick the Minnesota Timberwolves at +2200 to win the In-Season Tournament.
Aside from a potential "leap" from Anthony Edwards, we've also seen Minnesota have a track record of success in tournament and elimination settings. They beat Denver in a tie-breaker a few years ago, and they snuck into the playoffs through the play-in last year. Those may not be MAJOR accomplishments, but they're ones the team took pride in. And that's exactly the type of attitude we want in a team that could win a minor tournament like this.