×
sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think we're talking about two different things—I was saying I think you're wrong that most people don't have true, human-like autonomy in mind when they make these bold tweetstorm predictions about the future of self driving. I also said I hope you're right in spite of my assumptions, because I much prefer your view of things.

I'm just giving my intuitions on where I think most people's imaginations are. Nothing to do with the actual strategy within self-driving companies, which is an entirely different conversation.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No idea what the name-dropping is meant to get at. If you're interested in understanding why the last decade of AI has been so different than the couple that preceded it I encourage you to jump in. It's a rich subject that rewards exploration. If you're going after some kind of cynical commentary angle, I can't help you with that.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, you could be right about that. I tend to take people very literally when they talk about self-driving (true L5, no limitations you wouldn't place on a human driver, etc.). But if that's not what you mean then you have a totally reasonable point.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They're very cool, for sure. But their current performance, impressive as it is, is still nowhere near the dream of true autonomy. Like I said, Waymo has no clear strategy for lifting its geofencing (expanding, maybe, but not lifting), nor dismantling its remote support teams. I'll be a lot more interested when they start talking about that.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If that's really how you define the term, I encourage you to study the history of AI. Even the last decade has been characterized by a number of legitimate breakthroughs. (And trust me, it's a lot more inspiring than marketing.)

Tesla Model S Track Pack Nürburgring EV record (7:25.231) by Working_Sundae in electricvehicles

[–]DM65536 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Imagine the range we'll have when EV's are winning that.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're dramatically underestimating how much of the progress in that time has to do with engineering refinement, if not simply the pressures of commercialization itself, both of which are entirely orthogonal to the research that actually marks our progress towards L5. Yes, Waymo is a lot more impressive than Stanley was, but it's also an apples and oranges comparison when you consider how different their goals were, technologically, economically, organizationally, etc. etc. etc.

The problems that remain are so significant that I wouldn't look at anything in the past 20 years as a strong predictor of when we can expect to overcome them. This is a very, very, very unique challenge. There's a reason why even the people closest to it have such an awful track record of predicting its future for the last few decades.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I really think you're wrong about this, but I hope you're right. If people are, indeed, imagining a more limited, feasible form of this technology, then I think sensible conversations are possible. Like I said, I'm doubtful this will ever make for a solvent business compared to human drivers, but I'm very open to being wrong about that too. I appreciate the back and forth! Your perspective is interesting.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I can't tell you what a relief it is to hear from someone on this sub who actually seems to know something about the history of AV's. I swear to god it's 99% investor bros and teenage futurists who saw a YouTube explainer on neural networks five years ago and have carried themselves as armchair experts ever since.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 2 points3 points  (0 children)

True but the progress was 100% speculative at that point.

Hoo boy, it absolutely was not.

Fundamentally unresolved problems remain, and we are most certainly not merely "engineering" at this point. Not even close.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm simply talking about a driving agent that, whether it's owned by a company or an individual, can replace a human driver in all situations a human could be reasonably expected to navigate. We may disagree on this, but I believe 99% of the conversation on this topic, especially visions for a decade or two from now, are entirely dependent on this definition. (Maybe we're talking about two different things, and that's fine.)

Granted, if a business model that perpetually relies on remote monitoring and geofencing can really be viable, then sure—maybe we don't need that, and I'm more than happy to retract everything I said above. If it works, it works. But I'm skeptical that the amazing promises of scale, ubiquity, and the brand new use cases we're all so excited about (myself included) are possible with anything less than the informal (but quite instructive) definition of L5 mentioned above.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

They're not killing people, which is great. But to say they're driving well in places like SF, where complaints about their erratic and often obtrusive behavior are growing, seems unwarranted to me.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 4 points5 points  (0 children)

but for others things are not far off track

Note: I'm assuming we're all talking about true, L5 autonomy here. If the OP means something less than that, fair enough—disregard the following.

What is this claim based on? On track relative to what estimated date of completion?

No one in this space has a clear strategy for reaching true L5 autonomy. Waymo will be relying on geofencing and support teams for the foreseeable future, no matter how many cities they expand into. And I prefer not even wading into the morass of Tesla and FSD. But leaving specific brand names aside, L5 will depend in far, far, far more than crude estimates like disengagements per mile, especially since the definition of L5 depends on driving in low-traffic areas that may never be exhaustively tested through the brute, empirical repetition we currently rely on, and will likely differ from them dramatically anyway.

Like human drivers, we need a way to understand what a driving agent is capable of in a broad, hypothetical, cognitive sense, not just approximate that understanding by attempting to extrapolate it from what it's done in the past. Today's technology is poorly suited for that level of understanding. We have good reason not to trust our lives to it, and that won't change just because some vague numbers keep appearing to go down.

Fundamental questions remain about how to truly, exhaustively replace a human driver in all situations (L5 without compromise). Until those are answered, we have nothing to base our estimates of true self driving on.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Waymo's fleets are impressive in many ways, sure, but they're not doing anything that wasn't essentially possible a decade ago. They're just doing it a lot better, because the technology has been refined and so much about the environment has been learned. But the truly fundamental problems still exist: the company has no clear strategy to lift their geofencing and dismantle their remote support teams. In the meantime, they can keep rolling out in new cities as long as they want, and for what they do it's very cool technology, but it's not true autonomy. (And don't get me started on Tesla, oof.)

If L5 is somehow possible even in 2030 (which I doubt highly), it won't be because of today's technology. It'll be the product of some unforeseen breakthrough, and thus more a lucky guess than a reasoned projection.

"When the history books on self-driving cars are written, I don't think people are going to remember them being 3-5 years later than expected" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]DM65536 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Waymo still has no road map for true L5 (meaning, no clear strategy to cut the umbilical cord to their remote monitoring teams and lift all geofencing), so I don't see how even this is true (although I appreciate the joke, given Musk's absurd claims over the years and the embarrassing trajectory of FSD along the way).

After being indecisive for months I’m going to look at a 2021 S5 next week, what should I look out for? by riley41090 in Audi

[–]DM65536 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great question! I’m indeed in the US so if there are any differences in European marketing I hope someone who knows can chime in to help.

After being indecisive for months I’m going to look at a 2021 S5 next week, what should I look out for? by riley41090 in Audi

[–]DM65536 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hmmmm. Over about a half decade of buying and owning Audis, I've never once seen the A, S and RS lines advertised as anything other than what they are. The "S-Line" badging can be misleading at times, I think, but the vehicle name itself has never been ambiguous in my experience.

After being indecisive for months I’m going to look at a 2021 S5 next week, what should I look out for? by riley41090 in Audi

[–]DM65536 6 points7 points  (0 children)

A5, S5, and RS 5 are all completely separate vehicles. Both the A5 and the S5 have three trim levels unto themselves: Premium, Premium Plus, and Prestige. (The RS 5 only has a la cart options packages; no trim levels per se).

After being indecisive for months I’m going to look at a 2021 S5 next week, what should I look out for? by riley41090 in Audi

[–]DM65536 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I think my biggest concern would be that your S5 appears to be an A5. Am I missing something in the link you sent?

(And I agree your biggest concern should be inevitable giddiness. Try to maintain a poker face when discussing such an objectively awesome vehicle, hard as that'll be.)

[B9 RS5 SB] Been a few years, but back in the seat of an Audi! by [deleted] in Audi

[–]DM65536 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We have similar garages! My other car is a Model 3 Performance. I feels ten times faster off the line than the Audi, but the RS 5 is the better driving experience in almost every other respect, for me at least. I absolutely love the look of yours, too; the nardo/quantum grey craze has been so popular for the last few years that I keep forgetting how spectacular this car looks in silver. Absolutely gorgeous. Congrats!

Tesla lied to me about which hardware I have. by scubaguy91 in ModelY

[–]DM65536 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Given you've made the stand-up move of replying and then declaring your intent to unfollow, I suppose I'm talking into the void, but I can't resist asking for anyone else who may stumble upon this:

Well, you can do the research, for example, from the official service manual. You can use multiple public videos and discussions to check and understand if you have it.

Is it your belief that this doesn't conflict with u/michoudi's suggestion that one avoid the input of "anyone but [ones]self"?

In the most charitable case, his replies have been spectacularly inarticulate and, as can be verified by anyone, begin with an unprovoked, childish, dickishly snide remark to a fellow Tesla owner clearly looking for some support in a moment of frustration. This is the guy you're going to such lengths to defend, all while pulling the equally mature "I demand people listen to me but don't want to listen myself" maneuver. Charming stuff.

Tesla really has cultivated one of the most obnoxious and oblivious communities on the planet.

AI Stuff by [deleted] in WeTheFifth

[–]DM65536 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's why I replied. And I think I was respectful about it. I hope so anyway.

Absolutely, and it's appreciated.

AI Stuff by [deleted] in WeTheFifth

[–]DM65536 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I admit I'm sensing some sarcasm on your part (apologies if I misread), but yes, that's precisely the reason me no listen to hat man. I stand by my words and yours.

Tesla lied to me about which hardware I have. by scubaguy91 in ModelY

[–]DM65536 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As I've already told you once, I have no idea what this non-sequitur of a question has to do with explaining the advice you were so eager to give earlier in the thread. I've deliberately asked you simple, straightforward questions that you appear hellbent on dodging. Honestly, if you're this unprepared to deal with such gentle scrutiny, consider sitting out future questions of this sort.

(I mean the above sincerely; it may be blunt but isn't intended to be a cheap shot. I just don't know what else to say to someone so unable to defend themselves.)

Tesla lied to me about which hardware I have. by scubaguy91 in ModelY

[–]DM65536 8 points9 points  (0 children)

u/scubaguy91 Please refer to the above exchange for a demonstration of how little the people on this forum really know about how the world works. This might be the fastest I've seen someone go from sarcastic scolding to a complete collapse when even gently questioned, and I think it's instructive. I suggest going elsewhere for objective advice on Tesla.

view more: next ›