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东方明珠:业绩符合预期,数据赋能拥抱5G,关注公司新逻辑进展

研究员 : 焦娟   日期: 2019-09-04   机构: 安信证券股份有限公司   阅读数: 0 收藏数:
事件:    公司于8月27日公布19年半年报,2019年上半年实现营业收入、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润57.06亿元、10...

事件:
   
公司于8月27日公布19年半年报,2019年上半年实现营业收入、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润57.06亿元、10.71亿元、7.24亿元,分别同增-5.34%、-13.62%、6.18%。
   
点评:
   
1、优化业务架构,基本面趋稳。公司不断优化调整架构,聚焦主业完善产业链布局,逐步将14大事业群整合为4大产业板块(媒体、内容、视频购物、文旅消费),业务逐步趋稳。
   
(1)媒体网络板块优势强化,业绩释放仍需时间。2019年上半年实现营业收入14.31亿元,同减7.68%,毛利率为28.25%,同减3.97pct,主要系IPTV业务分账模式变化且互联网业务调整销售模式。公司围绕BesTV持续推进融媒体战略,期待未来放大渠道价值。2019年上半年,公司IPTV、OTT用户规模分别达5124万户、3426万户,分别同增11.39%、39.95%。有线电视稳中有升,其中付费电视有效用户维持在6000万户;互动点播合作平台达到40个,用户规模达1650万户,同增17.86%。公司同时整合12城城市公交、上海机场/地铁等线下流量大屏、全国数十个省会城市影院点映渠道,形成超过2亿人次的触达能力,未来公司流量货币化的变现能力值得期待。
   
(2)影视互娱板块坚持精品化路线,且监管趋严下公司边际受益。
   
2019年上半年实现营业收入3.76亿元,同减19.88%,毛利率为18.8%,同减0.89pct。影视方面,公司坚持主旋律精品路线,子公司出品的电视剧《你好,对方辩友》在芒果TV上线33天播放量破5亿次,并获主流媒体高度认可。游戏方面,公司积极响应文化出海政策,形成“主机+手游”双渠道出海模式,同时涉足电竞,响应上海“电竞之都”建设。
   
(3)视频购物板块能力边际强化,围绕“跨界新零售”,建立电视购物之外的全媒体立体销售平台。2019年上半年实现营业收入29.11亿元,同增0.2%,毛利率17.71%,保持稳定。
   
(4)文旅消费板块逐步构建线上线下渠道及流量一体化战略。2019年上半年实现营业收入9.12亿元,同减8.56%,毛利率46.38%,同减1.6pct。公司坚持“智慧广电文娱+”战略,打造线下文化产业集聚区代表,实现从线下到线上,从内容到变现的全路径变现模式
   
2、搭建OPG云平台,积极拥抱5G建设,构建大中台服务输出能力,期待公司新逻辑落地。公司着力打造面向未来增长力的智慧运营平台——OPG云。我们认为有望将从ToC/ToB两大业务变现角度受益:
   
(1)ToC:打通内容库及用户数据,实现用户一体化娱乐消费体验及内容精准推送,有望有效减缓大屏端用户流失甚至逆转。我们坚定认为未来“大屏生态”非“电视生态”,5G时代下,用户大屏端的需求场景将从功能性的观影需求向集娱乐消费、社交需求、生活、教育等于一体的综合需求场景转变,即需求升维(类似智能手机对功能手机的替代)。公司的ToC业务有望在两方面受益:提升内容货币化能力(如会员变现、电商变现)及发展新的内容货币化场景(如云游戏、电竞)。
   
(2)ToB:可细分为两大变现场景。第一个为基于ToC业务的广告变现,即流量货币化能力的提升,公司用户中心目前已汇聚6000万用户数据,形成16大类、500+用户画像标签,同时新增公交、机场、地铁等新的流量化的渠道媒体,广告变现能力逻辑的进一步落地是未来的重点。第二个为基于大数据能力开展智慧广电业务(如智慧城市等ToG业务)。目前公司布局的智慧城市物联网业务已在杨浦、虹口、普陀三区展开,已建设超20万个物联传感终端、覆盖45项应用大类,覆盖率达95%。公司计划未来三年继续扩大上海市场份额,并逐步拓展至长三角。公司背靠政府资源,逻辑演进颇为顺畅,期待业绩的实质性落地。
   
投资建议:公司经过三年业务整合,逻辑梳理,目前思路已逐步清晰。未来将突破媒体渠道优势下内容变现全闭环的逻辑,预期公司将通过构建OPG云智慧运营平台,打通海量数据资产资源优势,以大数据为基,连通媒介及内容、线上及线下,在ToB/ToC业务逻辑上均有较大变现机会。我们预期19年仍将为业绩趋稳时点,20、21年新逻辑有望逐步推进并落地。我们预计公司2019-2021年归母净利润分别为20.39亿、22.06亿、26.69亿,因公司战略逻辑较为顺畅且变现潜力较大,给予较高估值(20倍),对应19年目标价11.87元,首次评级给予“买入-A”评级。
   
风险提示:大屏用户持续下降,OPG战略推进不及预期,智慧广电业务对公司业绩贡献不及预期的风险。

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