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中科曙光:“芯片+高性能计算+云”一体化加速,协同效应正在凸显

研究员 : 闫磊   日期: 2018-10-29   机构: 平安证券股份有限公司   阅读数: 0 收藏数:
公司深耕高性能计算、存储等领域,业绩增长态势良好。中科曙光公司是中科院以863重大科研成果为基础组建的国家高新技术企业,在国内高性能计算、服务器、云计算、大数据领域处于领军地位。公司基础...

公司深耕高性能计算、存储等领域,业绩增长态势良好。中科曙光公司是中科院以863重大科研成果为基础组建的国家高新技术企业,在国内高性能计算、服务器、云计算、大数据领域处于领军地位。公司基础产品为高性能计算机(含通用服务器)、存储及核心IT设备,并对外提供云计算和大数据综合服务。中科曙光作为中科院计算所旗下比较稀缺的上市平台,在技术和资源上具有双重优势。近年来,受益于国内信息化建设加速,公司经营业绩呈现快速增长态势。2018年前三季度,公司实现营业收入55.58亿元,同比增长44.06%,增速继续保持在高位。2018年前三季度公司毛利率呈现出回升势头,9月末回升到了18.63%。随着公司对上游产业链的整合以及对下游的扩展,毛利率整体下滑的局面正在缓解。前三季度公司实现归母净利润1.74亿元,同比大幅增长129.63%。
   
高性能计算:产业链协同效应凸显,竞争力显著提升。公司通过参股天津海光获得了AMD X86架构国内授权,间接获得了处理器芯片设计能力,目前海光公司已经实现量产,三季度已经为公司贡献了投资收益,未来芯片供给能力将较快提升。一直以来,国内服务器长期受到上游芯片企业压制,国内企业对产业链的控制力弱、毛利率不高。公司通过拿到AMD授权布局服务器芯片,并凭借着AMD服务器芯片良好的性价比指标,有望重构通用服务器竞争格局,对其他服务器生产企业实现赶超。除了解决高性能计算机上游“卡脖子”的问题,下游出口也正在打开,公司“高端计算机+云计算”产业链正在加速形成,通过公司的云计算基础设施建设和运营业务带动的服务器销售,将为公司高性能计算业务发展带来新动能。
   
存储:企业级需求规模巨大,板块收入将保持较快增长。存储、计算作为数据中心最核心底层资源,公司在发力高性能计算的同时,布局存储业务也是顺理成章。经过十余年发展,公司已经形成了涵盖磁盘阵列产品、高密度存储服务器、并行分布式存储、备份存储和海量结构化数据存储的存
   
储产品体系。近年来,公司存储业务增长十分稳健,一直保持着20%左右的速度增长。随着大数据时代的到来,企业级存储将实现快速增长,公司大规模存储有望继续受益。IDC预计,2025年全球的数据量将达到163ZB,是目前的10倍之多,而且超过50%的数据将创建在企业端。未来,随着数据量的增长,以及数据监管要求的趋严,需要存储备份的数据将明显增多,企业级存储的需求将进一步扩大,但是企业级存储的供给能力存在巨大差距,市场空间很大。预计未来几年公司存储业务收入仍将能够保持20%左右的快速增长,到2020年该业务收入有望达到10亿元左右。
   
盈利预测及投资建议:我们预计公司2018-2020年的EPS分别为0.71元、1.02元、1.41元,对应10月19日收盘价市盈率分别为60.9倍、42.0倍、30.5倍。公司依托中科院计算所,在高性能计算、存储等方面有着独到的技术和资源,目前通过参股海光公司,获得AMD在中国地区的架构授权,公司可利用此授权进行芯片设计和产品销售,并能够与公司的服务器产品形成良好的协同效应,解决服务器行业利润长期被处理器芯片侵蚀的痛点。未来随着海光量产规模的扩大、生态建设的进一步完善,公司在投资收益和芯片技术积累方面都将获益。首次覆盖给予“推荐”评级。
   
风险提示:
   
(1)行业政策变化风险。公司主营高性能计算机、服务器及软件服务是近年来我国政府重点扶持发展的行业之一,国务院及有关部门先后颁布了一系列优惠政策,为相关行业的发展建立优良的政策环境。公司近年来的快速发展同样得益于相关产业政策,若国家有关政策发生不利变化,将可能对本公司发展战略的执行和经营业绩的成长产生一定影响。
   
(2)产品市场不及预期的风险。虽然公司得到了AMD X86芯片的技术授权,但消化吸收还需要较长时间。同时,AMD服务器芯片虽然在性价比上优势明显,但在生态上与英特尔还存在较大差距,未来搭载相关芯片的产品推广能否成功,还存在一定不确定性。
   
(3)新业务增长不及预期的风险。公司近几年积极布局云计算、人工智能业务,取得了较大进展,但在云计算、人工智能等新兴行业,市场竞争格外激烈,除传统的竞争对手浪潮信息、联想外,还要面对各大互联网企业、三大移动运营商等实力强大对手,未来如果企业不能够保持持续的创新和开拓能力,将会影响公司布局,进而导致业绩增长不佳。

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